XRP is trading at $1.37, down nearly 15% over the past week and 33% in the last 30 days, as bearish sentiment continues to weigh on the Ripple token.
However, a widely followed analyst says the monthly chart is showing a long-term ascending channel with support at $0.85–$0.95, a zone he believes could mark the entry point for institutional capital that has yet to return to the market.
Monthly Structure Shows Nine-Year Support Zone
The technical case for a potential reversal rests entirely on the monthly timeframe, according to analyst Arthur, who posted a detailed thread on X early Wednesday. His chart tracks XRP from March 2017 to the present, with each candlestick representing a full month of trading. The lower boundary of an ascending channel, tested repeatedly over nine years, now sits at $0.85–$0.95, which is roughly 30% below current prices.
“This is a monthly structural read, backed by macro and long-term volume behavior,” Arthur wrote. “The bottom of the monthly channel may very well represent the area where ‘smart money’ returns.”
He pointed to volume as the missing ingredient. The largest volume spike in XRP history occurred between November 2020 and April 2021. According to him, the 2024 rally, which pushed XRP above $2, saw four times less volume.
“The real money hasn’t returned yet,” he said. “What we saw in 2024 was whales and some funds. Not the large institutional flow that changes a market forever.”
Derivatives data supports the view that speculative positioning has cooled, with analysis from Arab Chain showing that in the last 30 days, XRP futures open interest dropped by about 1.8 billion XRP on Bybit and 1.6 billion on Binance. Kraken also posted a decline of about 1.5 billion XRP.
The contraction suggests traders are closing leveraged positions rather than building new ones, a behavior typically seen during transitional phases before a new trend emerges.
Macro Backdrop Has Shifted
The analyst’s optimism is not based on chart patterns alone. He cited five macro developments that distinguish early 2026 from previous cycles, including regulatory clarity following the conclusion of Ripple’s SEC lawsuit, the launch and scaling of RLUSD, and institutional integration of Ripple’s technology.
Arthur also pointed to the accelerating tokenization narrative and what he called “real institutional infrastructure” that is now in place.
“Technical analysis is always driven by macro,” the market observer said. “And the macro is pointing up.”
XRP has a history of delivering sharp recoveries from extended downturns. For example, during the 2018 bear market, the asset traded near $0.30 for months before rallying to $1.70 in April 2021. It again bottomed around $0.35 in spring 2022 and remained range-bound until November 2024, when it climbed above $2 and later hit an all-time high of $3.65 in July 2025.
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