With the dawn of October, sentiments surrounding Bitcoin appear to be improving. Interestingly, Bitcoin’s historical price behavior continues to show patterns consistent with the so-called “four-year cycle,” according to analysis by The DeFi Report.
The platform revealed that it is confident that BTC will peak again in Q4.
Four-Year Cycle Strikes Again
Current-cycle data indicates the market is in a “late stage” of expansion. The DeFi Report measured from Bitcoin’s November 2022 price trough, and found that 1,044 days have elapsed, which is comparable to the 1,063-day 2021 expansion and the 1,065-day 2017 cycle.
Realized profits for BTC investors have reached $857 billion, which is 65% higher than in the 2021 cycle, while normalized to market cap, profit creation aligns closely with previous cycles.
Meanwhile, Coin Days Destroyed, a measure of how long coins are held before spending, has already exceeded the 2021 cycle by 15%, which points to active profit-taking. Long-term holder supply too mirrored past behavior as a distribution phase occurred in Q4 2024 through Q1 2025, followed by a rebound, which means that coins moved into new money entering the market.
To top that, the market has continued to experience institutional participation and market maturation as Bitcoin dominance has not yet fallen to the 40% levels seen in prior cycles.
Realized Price & MVRV-Z Score
Technical indicators further add context to these trends. The 200-week moving average is currently sitting at $53.1k. It has previously signaled bottoms and prior cycle highs, pointing to diminishing returns for upward moves this year. Realized price, a proxy for cost basis, sits at $53.8k, which also validated this trend.
The MVRV-Z score is 2.28, already above comparable points in 2021. Previous instances have shown that a move toward a score of 3 could correspond to Bitcoin reaching $160k-$170k. This means that the crypto asset has significant potential upside if the cycle continues.
While no law requires Bitcoin to follow the four-year cycle, the report stated that the convergence of behavioral, mechanical, and macroeconomic factors suggests a Q4 peak is likely. Narrative anchoring, liquidity alignment, halving mechanics, innovation bursts, and volatility expectations together support this scenario, which makes the four-year cycle a durable framework.
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